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Next Catalan regional election

A regional election will be held in Catalonia no later than 11 June 2028 to elect the 16th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 135 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

The previous election saw the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) emerge as the largest party in a regional election—in both vote share and seat count—for the first time in history which, together with left-from-centre parties commanding a parliamentary majority (most particularly, the PSC together with Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Comuns Sumar), allowed Salvador Illa to become the new regional president at the helm of a single-party minority cabinet. The government's minority status posed challenges for Illa, with a political deadlock in the negotiations of the 2026 budget between PSC and ERC sparking speculation of an imminent snap election call.

Overview

Under the 2006 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Catalonia is the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president. In the absence of a regional electoral law, the election procedure comes regulated under transitory provisions supplemented by the national law.

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament is based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and with full political rights, provided that they have not been deprived of the right to vote by a final court ruling.

The Parliament of Catalonia has a minimum of 100 and a maximum of 150 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 135. All are elected in four multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, each of which is assigned a fixed number of seats—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency. The use of this electoral method may result in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency would be entitled the following seats:

The law does not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term will be filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 12 May 2024, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 12 May 2028. The election decree shall be published in the DOGC no later than 18 April 2028, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on 11 June 2028.

The regional president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year after a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

Difficulties in budget negotiations between the PSC and ERC throughout 2026 saw the media suggest that President Illa was considering calling a snap election to break the political deadlock, with 20 March—date on which the amendments to the entirety of the Catalan budget would be voted on—speculated as the deadline for Illa to take a decision on the issue. Castilian-Manchegan president Emiliano García-Page hinted at the possibility of a joint call of the Catalan, Andalusian and national elections in June 2026.

Current parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties, federations or alliances that have not obtained a parliamentary mandate at the preceding election are required to secure the signature of at least 0.1 percent of electors in the aforementioned constituencies. Amendments to the electoral law in 2024 increased requirements for a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

All candidates
Illa vs. Puigdemont

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Notes

References

Opinion poll sources

Other

Bibliography