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2024 Catalan regional election

A regional election was held in Catalonia on 12 May 2024 to elect the 15th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

The coalition government formed by Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Together for Catalonia (Junts) had broken up in October 2022, with president Pere Aragonès having to rely in the support of the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) and In Common We Can (ECP) for stability. After the Catalan government failed to pass the regional budget in Parliament on 13 March 2024, as a result of differences with ECP over the Hard Rock mega resort, Aragonès announced a snap election for 12 May.

Salvador Illa's PSC secured a commanding victory in both votes and seats in a Catalan regional election for the first time in history, whereas support for Catalan nationalist parties in general—and for ERC and the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) in particular—collapsed, bringing their combined totals well below the absolute majority threshold for the first time since 1980. The conservative People's Party (PP) surged from three to 15 seats, benefiting from the wipeout of Citizens (Cs), whereas the far-right, pro-independence Catalan Alliance (Aliança.cat) party of Sílvia Orriols was able to secure parliamentary representation thanks to strong support in traditionally pro-independence strongholds. Illa was elected as new president on 8 August 2024 with the support of ERC and Comuns Sumar and amidst a failed attempt by Puigdemont to thwart his investiture by returning to Barcelona while evading Spanish and Catalan police forces.

The election outcome and Illa's election were widely seen as signaling the end of the Catalan independence process starting in 2012 and seeing at its height a major constitutional crisis in Spain and its subsequent trials. The conciliation policies carried out by the Spanish government of Pedro Sánchez, as well as the controversial amnesty law that was agreed for in the 2023 Spanish government formation process, were said to be among the factors that influenced the loss of the pro-independence majority.

Overview

Under the 2006 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Catalonia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president. In the absence of a regional electoral law, the election procedure came regulated under transitory provisions supplemented by the national law.

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final court ruling. Amendments in 2022 abolished the "begged" voting system (), under which non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting. The begged vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it was in force.

The Parliament of Catalonia had a minimum of 100 and a maximum of 150 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 135. All were elected in four multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, each of which was assigned a fixed number of seats—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency. The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 14 February 2021, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 14 February 2025. The election decree was required to be published in the DOGC no later than 21 January 2025, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on 16 March 2025.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

After the Catalan government failed to pass the regional budget on 13 March 2024, president Pere Aragonès announced a snap election. The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 19 March 2024 with the publication of the dissolution decree in the DOGC, setting election day for 12 May.

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties, federations or alliances that had not obtained a parliamentary mandate at the preceding election were required to secure the signature of at least 0.1 percent of electors in the aforementioned constituencies. Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Ahead of the election, it was revealed that the People's Party (PP) and Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) were negotiating an electoral alliance that could be extended to the European Parliament election in June as well, but talks broke down on 22 March—causing the resignation of Adrián Vázquez as secretary-general of CS—after the regional branch of CS in Catalonia rejected its dissolution. The PP was also concerned on whether to keep Alejandro Fernández as the party's candidate or to replace him by another figure, such as former Health minister Dolors Montserrat. On 26 March, the PP confirmed Fernández as the party's candidate and Montserrat as campaign manager.

On 21 March, Together for Catalonia (Junts) leader Carles Puigdemont, who fled to Belgium to avoid charges brought by Spanish authorities following the unrecognized referendum on Catalan independence from Spain in 2017, held a rally in Elne, France, near the Spanish border, saying that he would stand for office in the Parliament of Catalonia and seek to become regional president, which he had previously held prior to his exile. On 26 March, Puigdemont announced the "Vernet Accord", an electoral alliance between Junts and several minor pro-independence parties: his former allies of Action for the Republic (AxR), The Greens–Green Alternative (EV–AV), Independence Rally (RI.cat), Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and Left Movement of Catalonia (MESCat), and new ones such as Catalan State (EC) and Republican Youth of Lleida (JRL). The next day, it was revealed that Puigdemont would run under the "Together+Puigdemont for Catalonia" (Cat–Junts+) platform. Later, EV–AV announced that their party had not signed nor negotiated the alliance and were not a part of Junts since 2020. Puigdemont pledged to return to Spain for the election of the Catalan presidency, by which time he expects to avail of a proposed amnesty on Catalan separatists raised by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. Puigdemont also pledged to retire from politics if he loses the election.

On 25 March, Catalan Alliance, a far-right party that led the local governments in the municipalities of Ripoll and Ribera d'Ondara, announced that they would be contesting the election with their leader, Sílvia Orriols, as their main candidate.

On 27 March, Podemos announced that they would not contest the election. The party had contested previous elections within the En Comú Podem alliance, alongside Catalonia in Common (CatComú). In a statement, the party stated that they did not wish to contribute to the fragmentation of the left-wing vote, as it had intended to contest the election on its own if an agreement could not be reached with their previous election partners, while blaming Catalunya en Comú for making an agreement "impossible". The relationship of Podemos with other Spanish left-wing parties had been deteriorating since it broke with the Sumar coalition and joined the Mixed Group in the Spanish Congress of Deputies. Following Podemos' withdrawal, CatComú and Sumar announced a joint list for the election under the name Comuns Sumar, with Jéssica Albiach as their main candidate.

On 8 May, PSC, ERC, Junts, Comuns Sumar and CUP announced an Acord antifeixista (English: "Anti-fascist Accord"), an agreement that those parties would not enter into any coalition with Catalan Alliance or Vox.

Timetable

The key dates are listed below (all times are CET):

  • 18 March: The election decree is issued with the countersign of the president, after deliberation in the Executive Council.
  • 19 March: Formal dissolution of parliament and start of prohibition period on the inauguration of public works, services or projects.
  • 22 March: Initial constitution of provincial and zone electoral commissions with judicial members.
  • 25 March: Division of constituencies into polling sections and stations.
  • 29 March: Deadline for parties and federations to report on their electoral alliances.
  • 1 April: Deadline for electoral register consultation for the purpose of possible corrections.
  • 8 April: Deadline for parties, federations, alliances, and groupings of electors to present electoral lists.
  • 10 April: Publication of submitted electoral lists in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC).
  • 15 April: Official proclamation of validly submitted electoral lists.
  • 16 April: Publication of proclaimed electoral lists in the DOGC.
  • 17 April: Deadline for the selection of polling station members by sortition.
  • 25 April: Deadline for the appointment of non-judicial members to provincial and zone electoral commissions.
  • 26 April: Official start of electoral campaigning.
  • 2 May: Deadline to apply for postal voting.
  • 7 May: Start of legal ban on electoral opinion polling publication; deadline for non-resident citizens (electors residing abroad (CERA) and citizens temporarily absent from Spain) to vote by mail.
  • 8 May: Deadline for postal and temporarily absent voting.
  • 9 May: Deadline for CERA voting.
  • 10 May: Last day of electoral campaigning.
  • 11 May: Official election silence ("reflection day").
  • 12 May: Election day (polling stations open at 9 am and close at 8 pm or once voters present in a queue at/outside the polling station at 8 pm have cast their vote); provisional vote counting.
  • 17 May: Start of general vote counting, including CERA votes.
  • 20 May: Deadline for the general vote counting.
  • 29 May: Deadline for the proclamation of elected members.
  • 7 July: Deadline for the publication of definitive election results in the DOGC.

Campaign

Party slogans

Election debates

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Voter turnout

The table below shows registered voter turnout on election day, without including non-resident citizens.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Government formation

Following the release of the election results, Salvador Illa said that "Catalonia has decided to open a new era". He was also congratulated by Pedro Sánchez for the "historic result". Carles Puigdemont observed that his party was the "only pro-independence force to increase in votes and seats" but acknowledged the offset suffered by other separatist parties. He also ruled out joining a coalition that included the PSC and suggested that Junts would try and restore their previous coalition with ERC, despite the fact that such a coalition would fall well short of enough seats to form a government and in defiance of his pre-election pledge to retire from politics if he lost the election. On 13 May, Pere Aragonès announced his retirement from politics and ruled out ERC joining a coalition with Junts or the PSC, while the latter said that it was seeking to form a coalition with the support of ERC and Comuns Sumar and ruled out a Puigdemont-led government.

On 29 July, ERC announced that it had reached an agreement to elect Illa as new regional president in exchange for executive powers to the Catalan government for collecting, managing and inspecting taxes. The agreement was validated by ERC's membership by 53% in favour to 44% against, as well as by the Republican Youth of Catalonia (JERC). On 31 July, the Comuns also reached an agreement with the PSC to support Illa's investiture, thus ensuring enough votes for an election in the first round of voting.

Notes

References

Opinion poll sources

Other

Bibliography

External links