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2024 United States presidential election in New York

The 2024 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New York had 28 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.

Prior to the election, New York was considered to be a state Harris would win or a safe blue state. Although it remained comfortably Democratic, New York was the state that had the biggest Republican swing out of any state in the nation in the 2024 election, with Trump greatly improving his performance by winning 43.31% of the state's vote, compared to 36.75% in the 2016 election and 37.74% in 2020. New York followed a trend of blue states, such as Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois and California voting more Republican than in 2020.

Harris had the worst performance in New York City (NYC) of any Democratic nominee since 1988, with Trump becoming the first Republican to win at least 30% of the vote in NYC since 1988. The Bronx and Queens (where Trump was born) swung towards Trump by more than 20 percentage points from 2020, the largest county swings to Trump outside of South Texas and Imperial County, California.

Polling had indicated a potentially closer race in New York in 2024 than in 2016 or 2020, but Democrats still consistently led by margins well outside the margin of error. Nonetheless, Trump's performance in New York was the strongest of any Republican presidential candidate since Vice President George H. W. Bush lost by just 4.1 points in the 1988 election, having decreased the Democratic margin of victory by 10.57 percentage points compared to 2020.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The 2024 New York Democratic presidential primary was held on April 2, alongside primaries in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.

Primary polling

Republican primary

The New York Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the Connecticut primary.

General election

Only two candidates appeared on the ballot in New York: Kamala Harris (under the Democratic and Working Families Party tickets) and Donald Trump (under the Republican and New York Conservative Party tickets). Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not appear on the ballot in New York after Judge Christina Ryba of the 3rd New York Judicial District ruled that he falsely listed his place of residence as Katonah, New York but actually lived in Los Angeles.

The state authorized votes for 12 write-in candidates:

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:

Predictions

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

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Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

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Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

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Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

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Results

New York City results

By New York City Council district

Harris won 43 of 51 New York City Council districts, including one held by a Republican, while Trump won eight districts, including three held by Democrats.

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Harris won 19 of 26 congressional districts, while Trump won seven. Each candidate won a district held by the other party.

Analysis

A heavily populated Middle Atlantic state, New York is considered a blue state, not having voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984. New York continued that trend in 2024, but Democrats saw a huge underperformance compared to past elections. Harris had the worst performance in New York City since 1988, winning the city by just 68-30%, with Trump the first Republican to win over 30% of the vote in the city since George H. W. Bush in 1988. (By comparison, Harris won Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania 79-20%.)

All counties in the state except for Hamilton, Yates, and Tompkins swung toward the Republicans in 2024. Trump became the first Republican to ever win the White House without winning Essex or Saratoga counties. If the five boroughs of New York City are excluded, Trump won the state with 2,740,061 votes to Harris's 2,715,851 votes, or 48.6% to 48.2%, thereby making him the first Republican to do so since 1988. Trump was the first Republican to carry Clinton County since 1992, Nassau County since 1988, and Rockland County since 2004. Tompkins County (home to Cornell University) voted to the left of every county in the state except for Manhattan, itself home to Columbia University. College counties voted to the left of the most populated and least White urban counties.

Trump also made major gains in all five New York City boroughs, with particularly dramatic shifts in the Bronx and Queens, both of which moved over 20 points towards the Republicans compared to 2020. In Queens (28% Hispanic and 27% Asian), Trump secured 37% of the vote, the highest share for a Republican presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Meanwhile, in The Bronx (56% Hispanic), he received 27% of the vote, the strongest Republican showing in the borough since Ronald Reagan in 1984. His performance in Brooklyn (19% Hispanic and 14% Asian) was also impressive, as he won 27% of the vote, the highest for a Republican presidential candidate in the borough since 1988. Similarly, in Manhattan (24% Hispanic and 13% Asian), Trump received 17%, the strongest Republican performance there in a presidential election since 1988. These shifts were driven in part by increased support among Hispanic and Asian communities. Even traditionally Republican Staten Island gave Trump 64% of the vote, the highest for a Republican since 1984.

Trump significantly improved his support among Hispanic voters, particularly in New York. According to Fox News voter analysis, Trump won 36% of the Latino vote in the state, a major increase from the 25% he received in 2020. This shift marked one of the most notable improvements for a Republican candidate among Hispanic voters in New York in recent history. This trend was not unique to New York; similar gains were observed nationwide, as Trump made inroads with Latino communities across various states, including Florida, Texas, and even traditionally Democratic strongholds like California.

Trump continued to make large gains in the state's Asian communities as well. On the Assembly District level, Trump flipped seven districts within New York City, four of which have large Asian populations. Areas including southern Brooklyn and northeastern Queens, which have large concentrations of Chinese-Americans had among the largest swings to Donald Trump in the city. New York’s 6th congressional district, which is 45% Asian and represented by Grace Meng, was only won by Harris by 6%. This pattern was repeated across heavily Asian communities across the country. Voters cited crime and the homelessness crisis in the city as primary motivators in changing their traditionally Democratic vote for Trump.

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

References