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2019 Manitoba general election

The 2019 Manitoba general election was held on September 10, 2019, to elect the 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.

The incumbent Progressive Conservatives, led by Premier Brian Pallister, were re-elected to a second majority government with a loss of two seats. The NDP, led by Wab Kinew, gained six seats and retained their position as the official opposition. The Liberals, led by Dougald Lamont, won the remaining three seats.

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election. As the previous election was held in 2016, the latest possible date for the election was October 6, 2020, or if that would have overlapped with a federal election period, the latest possible date would be April 20, 2021.

However, incumbent Premier Brian Pallister announced instead in June 2019 that he would seek to hold the election over a year early, on September 10, 2019, in order to seek "a new mandate to keep moving Manitoba forward." Pallister visited Lieutenant Governor Janice Filmon on August 12 to officially drop the writ and begin the campaign period.

It had been speculated that Pallister would call an early election in order to take advantage of a large lead in opinion polls, and to get the vote out of the way before new and potentially unpopular budget cuts took effect. A poll taken by the Winnipeg Free Press found that while most respondents disagreed with the early election and agreed that Pallister had moved up the date for partisan reasons, such sentiments were unlikely to imperil Pallister's re-election.

Reorganization of electoral divisions

In 2006, the Electoral Divisions Act was amended to provide for the creation of a permanent commission to determine any necessary redistribution of seats in the Legislative Assembly by the end of 2008, and then every tenth year thereafter. Its final report would take effect upon the dissolution of the relevant Legislature. Following a series of hearings and an interim report, the commission's final report was issued in December 2018, which provided for the following changes:

Timeline

2016

2017

2018

2019

  • April 3: Progressive Conservative MLA for Kildonan, Nic Curry announces that he will not seek re-election.
  • August 12: Premier Pallister visits the lieutenant governor and calls the election for September 10.
  • September 10: The election is held.

Movement in seats held

Historical results from 1990 onwards

Campaign

Opinion polls

Results

|- !rowspan="2" colspan="2"|Party !rowspan="2"|Leader !rowspan="2"|<span style="font-size: 80%;">Candidates</span> !colspan="4"|Seats !colspan="3"|Popular vote |- !2016 !<span style="font-size: 80%;">Dissolution</span> !2019 !+/- !Votes !% !+/-

|align=left| |57 ||40 |||38||36 ||-4 ||222,569||46.81 || -6.27

|align=left|Wab Kinew |57 ||14 ||12 ||18 ||+4 ||150,016||31.55|| +5.77

|align=left|Dougald Lamont |57 ||3 ||4 || 3|| – ||69,497||14.62||+0.22

|align=left| |43 ||&ndash; ||&ndash; ||&ndash;||&ndash;||30,295||6.37||+1.30

|align=left|Manitoba Forward |align=left|Wayne Sturby |7 ||&ndash; ||&ndash;||&ndash;||&ndash;||1,339||0.28 ||

|align=left|Manitoba First |align=left|Douglas Petrick |6 ||&ndash; ||1 ||&ndash;|| – ||647||0.14||-0.98

|align=left|Darrell Rankin |5 ||&ndash; ||&ndash; ||&ndash;||&ndash;||214||0.05||-0.02 |-

| colspan="2" style="text-align:left;"|Independents |3 ||&ndash; ||2 || &ndash;|| –||854||0.18||-0.29 |-

| colspan="4" style="text-align:left;"|Vacant | |0||||| &ndash;|| || || |- | colspan="5" | |- | style="text-align:left;" colspan="3"|Valid votes | || || ||||||478,926|| 99.27 || |- | style="text-align:left;" colspan="3"|Blank and invalid votes | || || ||||||3,495|| 0.73 || |- | style="text-align:left;" colspan="3"|Total |235 ||57 ||57 ||57||||482,421|| 100|| |- | style="text-align:left;" colspan="3"|Registered voters/turnout | || || ||||||870,137||55.44 ||

Vote and seat summaries

Synopsis of results

= new ridings
= open seat
= winning candidate was in previous Legislature
= incumbent had switched allegiance
= previously incumbent in another riding
= incumbency arose from a byelection gain
= not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature
= other incumbents renominated
= previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada
= multiple candidates

Turnout, winning shares and swings

Changes in party shares

= did not field a candidate in 2016

Summary analysis

Seats changing hands

Nine seats changed allegiance in 2019:

PC to NDP
Liberal to NDP
NDP to Liberal

Incumbents not running for reelection

Notes

References

Opinion poll sources

Further reading

External links