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Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election

Statewide polls for the 2016 United States presidential election include the following. The polls listed here provide early data on opinion polling between the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, the Libertarian candidate, and the Green candidate. Prior to the parties' conventions, presumptive candidates were included in the polls. State polling is not conducted in all states for the election due to various factors. More polls usually are conducted in states that are considered swing states as more attention is given to the results. For determining a statistical tie, the margin of error provided by the polling source is applied to the result for each candidate.

Most recent polling

Immediately before the election, Hillary Clinton had a vote lead among states recently polled. State polls with results outside the margin of error showed 213 potential electoral votes for Clinton and 162 potential electoral votes for Donald Trump. In 14 states and two congressional districts (150 electoral votes), results for Clinton and Trump were within the margin of error. For the two states and one district without recent polling, one state (6 electoral votes) voted for Mitt Romney in the 2012 election, while one state and district (7 electoral votes) voted for Barack Obama. Third-party candidates, such as Jill Stein and Gary Johnson, were also included in many statewide polls. They have not received support in statewide polling that surpasses the two main party nominees. Independent candidate Evan McMullin was tied with Donald Trump in the state of Utah, but he has only been included on a very limited number of statewide polls.

Alabama

9 electoral votes <br />(Republican in 2008) 60%–39%<br />(Republican in 2012) 61%–38%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 62%–34%

Alaska

3 electoral votes <br />(Republican in 2008) 59%–38%<br />(Republican in 2012) 55%–41%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 51%–37%

Two-way race

Four-way race

Arizona

11 electoral votes <br />(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%<br />(Republican in 2012) 53%–44%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 48%–45%

Two-way race<br />

Three-way race

Four-way race

Arkansas

6 electoral votes <br />(Republican in 2008) 59%–39%<br />(Republican in 2012) 61%–37%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 61%–34%

Two-way race

Four-way race

California

55 electoral votes <br />(Democratic in 2008) 61%–37%<br />(Democratic in 2012) 60%–37%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 62%–32%

Two-way race<br />

Four-way race

Colorado

9 electoral votes <br />(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%<br />(Democratic in 2012) 51%–46%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 48%–43%

Two-way race<br />

Three-way race

Four-way race

Five-way race<br />

Connecticut

7 electoral votes <br />(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%<br />(Democratic in 2012) 58%–41%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 55%–41%

Four-way race

Delaware

3 electoral votes <br />(Democratic in 2008) 62%–37%<br />(Democratic in 2012) 59%–40%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 53%-42%

Four-way race<br />

District of Columbia

3 electoral votes <br />(Democratic in 2008) 92%–7%<br />(Democratic in 2012) 91%–7%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 91%–4%

No polling was conducted post August 1, 2016

Florida

29 electoral votes <br />(Democratic in 2008) 51%–48%<br />(Democratic in 2012) 50%–49%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 49%–48%

Georgia

16 electoral votes <br />(Republican in 2008) 52%–47%<br />(Republican in 2012) 53%–45%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 51%–46%

Two-way race<br />

Three-way race

Four-way race

Hawaii

4 electoral votes <br />(Democratic in 2008) 72%–27%<br />(Democratic in 2012) 71%–28%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 62%–30%

No polling was conducted in 2016

Idaho

4 electoral votes <br />(Republican in 2008) 61%–36%<br />(Republican in 2012) 64%–32%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 59%–28%

Four-way race<br />

Illinois

20 electoral votes <br />(Democratic in 2008) 62%–37%<br />(Democratic in 2012) 58%–41%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 56%–39%

Two-way race<br />

Four-way race

Indiana

11 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 54%–44%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 57%–38%

Three-way race

Four-way race

Iowa

6 electoral votes <br />(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%<br />(Democratic in 2012) 52%–46%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 51%–42%

Two-way race<br />

Four-way race

Five-way race<br />

Kansas

6 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 56%–42% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 60%–38%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 57%–36%

Two-way race<br />

Four-way race

Kentucky

8 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 57%–41% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 60%–38%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 63%–33%

Two-way race<br />

Five-way race<br />

Louisiana

8 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 59%–40% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 58%–41%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 58%–38%

Three-way race

Four-way race

Maine

4 electoral votes (statewide vote worth 2 EVs; 1st and 2nd congressional districts worth 1 EV each)<br />(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 56%–41%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 48%–45%

Four-way race

Maryland

10 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 62%–36% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 62%–36%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 60%–34%

Four-way race

Massachusetts

11 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 62%–36% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 61%–38%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 60%–33%

Two-way race<br />

Four-way race

Michigan

16 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 57%–41% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 54%–45%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 48%–47%

Two-way race<br />

Three-way race<br />

Four-way race

Minnesota

10 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 53%–45%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 46%–45%

Two-way race<br />

Four-way race

Five-way race<br />

Mississippi

6 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 56%–43% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 55%–44%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 58%–40%

No polling conducted post September 1, 2016

Missouri

10 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 49.4%–49.2% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 53%–44%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 57%–38%

Two-way race<br />

Three-way race

Four-way race

Montana

3 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 49%–47% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 55%–42%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 56%–36%

Three-way race

Four-way race

Nebraska

5 electoral votes (statewide vote worth 2 EVs; 1st, 2nd, and 3rd congressional districts worth 1 EV each)<br />(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%<br />(Republican in 2012) 60%–38%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 59%–34%

Four-way race

Nevada

6 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 55%–43% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 52%–46%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 48%–46%

Two-way race

Three-way

Four-way race

Five-way race

New Hampshire

4 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 52%–46%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 48%–47%

Two-way race<br />

Four-way race

Five-way race<br />

New Jersey

14 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 58%–41%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 55%–41%

Two-way race<br />

Four-way race

New Mexico

5 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 53%–43%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 48%–40%

Four-way race

New York

29 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 63%–36% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 63%–35%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 59%–37%

Four-way race

North Carolina

15 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 50%–48%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 50%–46%

Three-way race

Four-way race

North Dakota

3 electoral votes <br />(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%<br />(Republican in 2012) 58%–39%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 63%–27%

Four-way race

Ohio

18 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 52%–47% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 51%–48%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 51%–43%

Two-way race

Three-way race

Four-way race

Five-way race

Oklahoma

7 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 66%–34% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 67%–33%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 65%–29%

Three-way race

Oregon

7 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 54%–42%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 50%–39%

Four-way race

Pennsylvania

20 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 52%–47%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 48%–47%

Three-way race

Four-way race

Rhode Island

4 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 63%–35% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 63%–35%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 54%–39%

Four-way race

South Carolina

9 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 54%–45% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 55%–44%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 55%–41%

Three-way race

Four-way race

South Dakota

3 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 53%–45% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 58%–40%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 62%–32%

Three-way race

Four-way race

Tennessee

11 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 57%–42% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 59%–39%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 61%–35%

Four-way race

Texas

38 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 55%–44% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 57%–41%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 52%–43%

Two-way race

Three-way race

Four-way race

Utah

6 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 62%–34% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 73%–25%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 46%–28%

Four-way race<br />

Five-way race<br />

Six-way race

Vermont

3 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 67%–30% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 67%–31%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 56%–30%

Four-way race

Virginia

13 electoral votes <br />(Democratic in 2008) 53%–46% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 51%–47%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 50%–44%

Two-way race

Three-way race

Four-way race

Five-way race

Washington

12 electoral votes<br />(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 56%–41%

Winner <br />(Democratic in 2016) 54%–38%

Two-way race

Four-way race

West Virginia

5 electoral votes<br />(Republican in 2008) 56%–43% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 62%–36%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 69%–26%

Two-way race

Three-way race

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes <br />(Democratic in 2008) 56%–42% <br /> (Democratic in 2012) 53%–46%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 47%–46%

Three-way race

Four-way race

Wyoming

3 electoral votes <br />(Republican in 2008) 65%–33% <br /> (Republican in 2012) 69%–28%

Winner <br />(Republican in 2016) 67%–22%

Four-way race

See also

General election polling

Democratic primary polling

Republican primary polling

Older polling

Notes

References