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Opinion polling for the 2024 French legislative election

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the snap 2024 French legislative election, which was held in two rounds on 30 June and 7 July 2024. Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission and utilize the quota method. Sample sizes listed are for registered voters, and polls are listed in reverse chronological then alphabetical order by name of institute.

National polling

Graphical summary

First round

The 20:00 CEST estimations made by various pollsters are not traditional exit polls, but are instead based on the level of turnout reported and first set of ballots counted at polling stations which close an hour or two earlier.

Seat projections

Even though polls since the publication of the official list of candidates by the Ministry of the Interior ask about the specific candidates within each constituency, seat projections should be treated with a significant level of precaution due to their numerous sources of uncertainty which include but are not limited to:

  • the large historical error associated with these seat projections outside of the margins of uncertainty reported by pollsters;
  • the fact that the legislative election is based on two rounds of voting with 577 varying configurations of candidates in different constituencies, rather than a national party list vote;
  • the number of constituencies with second rounds featuring more than two candidates (due to the threshold of 12.5% of registered voters to appear in the second round);
  • the need to make inferences about first-to-second round vote transfers between candidates based on historical voting patterns;
  • the fact that only residents of metropolitan France are usually surveyed, excluding constituencies of overseas France and constituencies for French residents overseas;
  • the unpredictability of eliminated candidates' voting instructions in the aftermath of the first round and candidate withdrawals in constituencies with three or more candidates advancing to the second round; and
  • the fact that these projections are agnostic to local factors such as the strength of specific incumbent deputies because they are not made on a constituency-by-constituency basis (and no national polls have a large enough sample size to detect such anomalies), and are instead based on simulations using the aforementioned inferences on the basis of national-level polling with a representative sample in terms of gender, age, region, urbanicity, and socio-economic status (among other variables) projected onto each constituency.

Due to these uncertainties, certain polling institutes opt not to release seat projections alongside topline voting intention figures prior to the first round, and only publish such projections after the results of that initial voting is known.

These seat projections are not subject to the same regulations of the national polling committee as regular voting intention polls are.

The precautions above also apply to the estimations released by pollsters at 20:00 CEST on the day of the first round, though may be slightly more reliable due to asking about several second-round hypotheses based on large number of survey interviews conducted in the hours just prior to the day of the vote. As with the vote percentage estimations after the first round, seat projections produced after the second round made by various pollsters are not traditional exit polls, but are instead based on the level of turnout reported and first set of ballots counted at polling stations which close an hour or two earlier. At least 289 seats are needed for an absolute majority.

By second round configuration

By first round vote

NFP–ENS–RN

NFP–RN

LFI–ENS
LFI–RN
PS/LE–ENS
PS/LE–RN

ENS–RN

LR–RN

By constituency

Because the configuration of the second round, if any, is contingent on the level of turnout in the first round, only the top-placed candidate is highlighted in first-round polls below.

Alpes-Maritimes's 1st

First round

Second round

Calvados's 6th

Second round

Lot-et-Garonne's 3rd

First round

Second round

Nord's 10th

First round

Second round

Seine-Saint-Denis's 7th

First round

Second round

See also

Notes and references