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Opinion polling for the 2017 United Kingdom general election

Opinion polling for the 2017 United Kingdom general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The opinion polls listed range from the previous election on 7 May 2015 to the election on 8 June 2017.

Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, the next general election after 2015 was not scheduled to be held until 7 May 2020. However, on 18 April 2017, Prime Minister Theresa May announced she would seek a snap election on 8 June 2017, and this was officially triggered by a successful House of Commons motion the following day.

Graphical summaries

National poll results

Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. The Scottish National Party (SNP) only stands candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding, total figures may not add up to 100%. The lead is calculated by subtracting the polling percentage of the first party (shaded in the party's colour, and in bold) by that of the second party.

2017

2016

2015

YouGov model

During the election campaign, YouGov created a Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model based on poll data. As set out by YouGov, the model "works by modelling every constituency and key voter types in Britain based on analysis of key demographics as well as past voting behaviour", with new interviews to registered voters conducted every day.

Seat projections

The general election was contested under the first-past the post electoral system in 650 constituencies. 326 seats were needed for a parliamentary majority.

Most polls were reported in terms of the overall popular vote share, and the pollsters did not typically project how these shares would equate to numbers of seats in the House of Commons.

Final projections from aggregators

Various models existed which continually projected election outcomes for the seats in the UK based on the aggregate of polling data. Final predictions of some notable models are tabulated below. 'GB' projections forecast seats in Great Britain only, whilst 'UK' projections also include Northern Irish seats.

Exit poll

An exit poll, conducted by GfK and Ipsos MORI on behalf of the BBC, ITV and Sky News, was published at the end of voting at 22:00, predicting the number of seats for each party.

The exit poll results were regarded as a surprise, as it showed a much closer result than most opinion polls had anticipated.

Sub-national poll results

Scotland

Wales

Northern Ireland

English regions

North East England

North West England

Yorkshire and the Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East England

South West England

Individual constituency poll results

Battersea

Brighton Pavilion

Edinburgh South

Kensington

Tatton

Preferred prime minister polling

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as Prime Minister – Theresa May (Conservative Party) or Jeremy Corbyn (Labour Party). The questions differ slightly from pollster to pollster:

  • Opinium, Lord Ashcroft and YouGov: "Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?"
  • Kantar Public: "If you had to choose between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, who do you think would make the best leader for Britain?"
  • Ipsos MORI: "Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister, the Conservative’s Theresa May, or Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn?"
  • Survation: "Which of the following party leaders do you think would make the best Prime Minister?"
  • ComRes: "For each of these pairs of statements, which one comes closest to your view? - Jeremy Corbyn would make a better Prime Minister than Theresa May/Theresa May would make a better Prime Minister than Jeremy Corbyn"
  • ICM: "Putting aside which party you support, and only thinking about your impression of them as leaders, which one of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister for Britain?"

May vs Corbyn

2017

2016

Cameron vs Corbyn

2016

2015

Multiple party leaders

Some polls ask voters to choose between multiple party leaders. The questions vary by pollster:

  • Lord Ashcroft: "Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?"
  • ComRes: "Who of the following would make the best Prime Minister after the upcoming General Election?"
  • YouGov: "Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?"

2017

2016

Hypothetical polling

See also

Notes

References

External links