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<section begin="senintro" />The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego won his first term in office, defeating Republican former news anchor Kari Lake. He succeeded independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term.
Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat, was considered vulnerable to a primary challenge due to frequently opposing her party's legislative agenda. After preparing a re-election bid as an independent, Sinema announced she would retire from the Senate. Gallego ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. Lake, the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, won her party's nomination with 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb. The election was considered among the most competitive Senate races in 2024. Most polls and ratings had Gallego as the favorite to win. Gallego defeated Lake by 2.41 percentage points, a closer race than polls had projected for most of the campaign. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's wider-than-expected victory in the state likely contributed to this, but there was also a significant amount of ticket splitting between the presidential and senatorial races.
Gallego outperformed Kamala Harris by the fourth-largest margin among Democratic Senate candidates in 2024, and the largest margin for a non-incumbent. Gallego particularly benefitted from ticket splitting among Hispanics, who according to exit polls gave Gallego 60% of their votes, compared to 54% for Harris. Specifically, Gallego received 93,475 more votes than Harris, while Lake received 174,481 fewer votes than Donald Trump. This election marked the fourth consecutive election cycle in which Democrats won a Senate election in Arizona.
This was the first time that Arizona voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Dennis DeConcini was reelected as Republican George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988. Gallego also became the first Latino elected to the Senate from Arizona, a state with a large Latino population. This was the first time since 2006 that any candidate won a majority of the vote in this seat.
Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship, most other statewide offices, and both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6âÂÂ3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House delegation. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.
Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her. On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers. This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.
Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent, while continuing to be counted as part of the Senate Democratic Caucus.
Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller<br />
Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton
The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns. A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party.
Gallego's campaign emphasized his military service record, highlighting his deployment to Iraq as a Marine Corps infantryman. His campaign positioned his military credentials as evidence of his ability to work across party lines and appeal to independent voters. Lake's campaign focused on her alignment with Trump and emphasized border security and election integrity issues.
Aggregate polls<br />
Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema<br />
Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"<br />
Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema<br />
Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema<br />
Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema<br />
Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema<br />
Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema<br />
Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema<br />
On November 9, 2024, Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallego had won the Senate election in Arizona. On November 12, 2024, the Associated Press projected that Gallego had defeated Lake as well.
Gallego won five of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.
Similarly to the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, Lake refused to concede defeat.
Partisan clients<br />
Official campaign websites