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2025 Virginia gubernatorial election

The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2025, to elect the next governor of Virginia. The election was held concurrently with elections for Virginia's statewide offices, the House of Delegates, and other local offices. Incumbent Republican governor Glenn Youngkin was ineligible to seek re-election to a second term due to the state's prohibition on consecutive gubernatorial terms.

Neither Republican lieutenant governor Winsome Earle-Sears nor former Democratic U.S. representative Abigail Spanberger received opposition in their respective primaries. In April 2025, Spanberger and Earle-Sears were confirmed as the major party nominees. Spanberger defeated Earle-Sears by roughly 527,000 votes which is the largest raw vote margin in state history. She won by 15.36% — a landslide margin and the largest gubernatorial percentage margin since 2009. Democrats won all three statewide executive offices and a trifecta in Virginia's government for the first time since 2019.

The central issues of the campaign were the economy and affordability, which included the federal layoffs from the Trump administration. Transgender rights and political rhetoric followed behind as secondary issues. President Trump's general unpopularity and perceived performance on the economy, healthcare, immigration, and other issues were viewed as contributing factors for Earle-Sears' loss.

Spanberger was elected the first female governor in the state's history, winning by the largest Democratic gubernatorial margin since 1961. She was sworn in as the 75th governor of Virginia on January 17, 2026.

Background

Since the 2008 presidential election, Virginia has voted Democratic for president, due in part to Northern Virginia's growth and Democratic trends. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris won the state by 5.78%. After the 2024 Virginia elections, Democrats maintained control of both U.S. Senate seats and their 6-5 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

In the 2021 gubernatorial election, Youngkin defeated Terry McAuliffe by two points, after Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by 10 points. The central issues were the economy and education, which led to Republican flips in all three statewide executive offices and the House of Delegates. In the 2023 Virginia elections, Democrats narrowly flipped the House of Delegates and maintained control of the Virginia Senate due to the issue of abortion rights.

In the 2024 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump was re-elected into office, which Democrats hoped would energize their voter base in the off-year elections. Trump's personal popularity and voters' position on the economy were viewed as crucial to the gubernatorial race. In January 2025, President Trump and Elon Musk introduced the Department of Government Efficiency. DOGE laid off thousands of federal workers, which were relevant in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, since 140,000 federal workers resided in the state. Since 1977, Virginia elected the party out of presidential power for governor – with the exception of 2013 – which made Democrats the initial favorite.

Due to Virginia's blue lean, the state was viewed as a likely gubernatorial pickup for Democrats as national circumstances were unfavorable for Republicans. The economy became the most prominent issue, while healthcare and education followed as secondary issues. The concern on the economy was based on tariffs and federal cuts from the Trump Administration.

Republican primary

Background

On September 4, 2024, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears declared her candidacy for governor. She received criticism from Attorney General Jason Miyares for making her announcement ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Miyares was widely viewed as a potential candidate for the Republican nomination.

In November 2024, he declined to run for governor and unsuccessfully ran for reelection as attorney general in 2025. After his declination, Earle-Sears was viewed as the presumptive nominee.

Campaign

On February 27, Earle-Sears received opposition from former state senator Amanda Chase and former state delegate Dave LaRock. They affiliated themselves more with President Trump and criticized Earle-Sears' previous comments about him. Despite the newfound opposition, Earle-Sears was still viewed as the favorite in the primary.

Neither Chase nor LaRock reached the signature deadline before April 5 to qualify for the primary ballot. LaRock criticized Governor Youngkin's endorsement of Earle-Sears while Chase, who previously opposed Earle-Sears, ultimately expressed support for the Republican nominee.

On April 5, Earle-Sears secured the Republican nomination for governor.

Candidates

Nominee

Failed to qualify

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Fundraising

Democratic primary

Background

In 2020, Governor Ralph Northam encouraged Abigail Spanberger to someday run for governor. On November 13, 2023, she announced her candidacy and did not run for re-election in the House of Representatives in 2024.

Campaign

In December 2023, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, declared his candidacy. His low statewide name recognition meant Spanberger was viewed as the favorite to win the primary. There was private pressure for Stoney to drop out of the race for Spanberger. In April 2024 – a year before the filing deadline – Stoney withdrew from the race to "avoid a costly and damaging primary" and unsuccessfully ran for lieutenant governor.

In December 2024, U.S. Representative Bobby Scott, explored the possibility of running for governor, despite doubt from internal sources over whether he would actually do so. In February 2025, Scott hinted he would not run for governor and ultimately did not file a candidacy.

On April 3, Spanberger secured the Democratic nomination after no other candidacies were filed.

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Fundraising

Third parties and independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

General election

Campaign

This was the first gubernatorial election in the state's history in which both major party nominees were women. President Trump instated tariffs on other nations including Canada and China. The tariffs were expected to increase prices on consumer goods from companies who relied on foreign imports. Spanberger disagreed with the tariffs and said they were "...a massive tax hike on Virginians — plain and simple."

Virginia Democrats highlighted Earle-Sears' conservative positions on social issues and support for tariffs. After the June primaries, the economy emerged as the main issue for both campaigns. Spanberger's campaign message was focused on affordability: she continued to oppose federal layoffs and tariffs from the Trump administration. Earle-Sears pledged to continue Youngkin's economic policies. After Earle-Sears replaced her campaign manager, there were internal concerns from the Virginia Republican Party over how her campaign was managed. By July, Spanberger significantly outraised Earle-Sears, while there was lack of Republican investment in the race compared to 2021.

Earle-Sears' statements on federal workers throughout the campaign were criticized as "self-inflicted wounds" and supportive of President Trump's DOGE cuts. Earle-Sears began to focus on transgender policies in Northern Virginia's schools, which mirrored Youngkin's focus on critical race theory in 2021. On August 21, Earle-Sears' speech at an Arlington County School Board meeting received protests. One protest sign stated, "Hey Winsome, if trans can’t share your bathroom, then Blacks can’t share my water fountain." The sign received media attention and condemnation from Spanberger and Earle-Sears. Spanberger continued to campaign on affordability issues, which remained the top issue for voters. She campaigned in Southwest Virginia and attempted to win over rural voters who voted Trump in 2024. By October, Earle-Sears ran mainly on anti-transgender policies in schools. Earle-Sears ran attack ads against Spanberger which resembled the "Kamala is for they/them" ad from the 2024 presidential election. She spent $2 million on anti-transgender and anti-woke ads, which made up a significant portion of her campaign advertisements.

On October 1, a federal government shutdown began, which further affected federal workers and became a central issue by the end of the campaign. According to several polls, the Republican Party was largely blamed for the shutdown. Both Spanberger and Earle-Sears opposed the shutdown, while Spanberger tied the shutdown to President Trump's policies on federal workers. Political violence became another central issue to the campaign after the Charlie Kirk assassination, which Republicans hoped would energize low-turnout voters. The conservative National Review released text messages from Jay Jones—<nowiki/>the Democratic nominee for attorney general—which referred to former Republican speaker Todd Gilbert: "If those guys die before me...I will go to their funerals to piss on their graves." He also stated, "Three people, two bullets. Gilbert, hitler, and pol pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head. Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time." He reportedly fantasized about the death of Gilbert's children.

The text messages were criticized by President Trump, Glenn Youngkin, and other prominent Republicans officials who called for Jones to withdraw from the race. Spanberger condemned the text messages but did not call for him to withdraw from the race. Earle-Sears attempted to tie Jones to Spanberger and spent $1 million on attack ads, which criticized Spanberger's stance on Jones' text messages. Democrats largely defended Spanberger's response to the messages, while the messages themselves received significant media attention. At James Madison University's football game, one fan shouted at Earle-Sears, "Go back to Haiti." The event received condemnation from the university, and the fan was banned from the university.

Former President Barack Obama appeared in two ads for Spanberger's campaign which highlighted abortion rights and economic issues. Obama further criticized President Trump's policies. Other national figures campaigned for Spanberger, including Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, Ruben Gallego, Josh Shapiro, and Wes Moore. Obama and Spanberger held a high-profile rally in Norfolk known as the "Virginia Votes Rally." Obama's speech focused on the economy, democracy, and Trump—most of Spanberger's advertisements continued to tie Earle-Sears to Trump. Trump did not campaign with nor officially endorse Earle-Sears; however, he did support her over Spanberger.

Debate

Spanberger and Earle-Sears met on October 9, 2025, at Norfolk State University for their one televised debate. Topics discussed during the debate included the Virginia car tax, text messages sent by Jay Jones, the federal government shutdown, affordability, energy and data centers, parents' roles in education, policies relating to transgender students in K-12 schools, reproductive rights, and policies related to marijuana. During the debate, Earle-Sears pressed on Spanberger to call for Jones to exit the race and whether she still endorses Jones. When asked on whether she would tell Trump to reopen the government, Earle-Sears accused Spanberger of "politicizing" the 2025 federal mass firings by the Trump administration. Spanberger claimed that Earle-Sears had previously stated that same-sex couples should not be allowed to marry and that firing employees for being gay was acceptable. After both claims, Earle-Sears interrupted Spanberger by adding "that's not discrimination". When asked about these comments in an interview on October 28, she claimed that she had misspoken and that she meant to say that she had not personally discriminated against gay people in that manner.

Predictions

Endorsements

Polling

Aggregate polls

Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Bobby Scott<br />

Jason Miyares vs. Abigail Spanberger<br />

Results

By county and independent city

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Spanberger won eight of 11 congressional districts, including two held by Republicans.

Aftermath and analysis

The result was a landslide victory for Spanberger, who set a record for most votes received by a gubernatorial candidate in Virginia. Spanberger's sizable victory was attributed to concerns over affordability, Earle-Sears' tendency to change staff and failure to find a convincing message, Spanberger's fundraising advantage, a significant decline in turnout in heavily Republican Southwest Virginia, and outrage in Northern Virginia over the mass layoffs of federal workers as part of President Donald Trump's efforts to downsize the federal government. Additionally, many furloughed federal workers were energized by the ongoing federal government shutdown. Discontentment with the U.S. economy under Trump, which many Virginians blamed on his tariff policies, also played a factor in motivating Spanberger voters. The layoffs boosted Spanberger in Northern Virginia which contributed to her large victory margin.

Northern Virginia backed 88% of her statewide margin, where every locality in the region saw her margin increase significantly from McAuliffe's performance in 2021. She could've won statewide without Northern Virginia by three points.

Spanberger did well with college-educated voters, winning voters with college degrees by 27 points (63%-36%). Many college campuses shifted leftward by 18 points on average due to young voters. Virginia Tech shifted 34 points to the left, which was the largest shift of all the college campuses. Spanberger’s strongest independent city was Charlottesville, where the University of Virginia is — her alma mater. The evangelical Liberty University in Lynchburg shifted to the left by six points. College-educated voters made up more of the electorate compared to 2021. Spanberger narrowly won non-college-educated voters (50%-49%) despite Youngkin's 19-point margin (59%-40%) with non-college-educated voters from 2021.

This is the first time since 1985 that a Democrat carried Spotsylvania County, a notable Republican stronghold, as well as Waynesboro City. Stafford County also flipped for the first time since 1985, though Harris won Stafford in 2024. Nelson County and Caroline County also voted Democratic for the first time since 2013. James City County voted Democratic for the first time since 2005, although it voted Democratic in 2020 and 2024. Spanberger's closest victory was in York County, which voted Democratic for the first time since 1965. Spanberger improved with Latino voters from 2024.

CNN exit poll

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

References

External links

Official campaign websites