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2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma

The 2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oklahoma voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oklahoma has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Republican Donald Trump easily kept the state in the GOP column in the past two election cycles, with a 36.4% margin of victory in 2016 and 33.1% four years later. Oklahoma was widely-expected to go for Trump a third time in 2024, and Trump ultimately carried the state by 34.26%, winning every county.

Oklahoma was Trump's fifth strongest state in the nation, behind North Dakota, Idaho, West Virginia, and Wyoming, in order from weakest to strongest. Despite this, the state had one of the smallest swings of any state, shifting rightward by just 1.2%, with many counties in the northwest of the state shifting slightly leftward.

The Oklahoma State Election Board approved Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to officially appear on the ballot in the state on May 9. Although he withdrew from the race, and subsequently endorsed Trump's candidacy, his name remained on the ballot.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Oklahoma Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Republican primary

The Oklahoma Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Libertarian primary

The Oklahoma Libertarian primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Jacob Hornberger and Chase Oliver were qualified by petition for placement on the ballot. This is the first presidential preference primary for any alternative party in the state.

Oliver and Hornberger participated in a forum at Rose State College in Midwest City, on February 7, 2024.

General election

Candidates

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Oklahoma:

Predictions

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

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Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

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Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

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Results

By county

By congressional district

Trump won all five congressional districts.

Analysis

A deeply red state entirely in the Bible Belt, Oklahoma has the longest Republican presidential voting streak of any Southern state, having not backed a Democratic presidential candidate since it was won by Lyndon B. Johnson of neighboring Texas in 1964. Since then, the state has only been contested by single digits in the nationwide victories of former Southern governors Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton (the latter from neighboring Arkansas) in 1976, 1992, and 1996. In addition, Republican presidential candidates have consistently won every county in the state starting with Texan George W. Bush in 2004 — although Oklahoma County, home to the largest city and state capital Oklahoma City, was closely decided in 2020.

While dominating the Panhandle and Northwestern counties, Trump improved across the state, particularly the east with large Native American populations. He increased his vote-share in the only two plurality-Native counties in the state: Adair and Cherokee, both encompassed by the Cherokee Reservation, and the latter hosting the tribal capital in Tahlequah. Counties encompassed by the Cherokee, Muscogee, and Seminole reservations were all won by Trump by large margins, continuing 2020 trends. In addition, his 55% victory in Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district is the best for a presidential Republican; the historically Democratic region ("Little Dixie"), home to the Choctaw Reservation, has voted for Trump in all three of his election bids. His 41.4% victory in Osage County is the best for a presidential Republican since Nixon's 50.2% in 1972.

Although Trump easily won Oklahoma, the state had the third smallest rightward shift in the nation (after Utah and Washington state), shifting rightward by 1.18%. Much like in 2020, Oklahoma County was close, with Trump winning the county by less than 1.7%, though he did narrowly increase his margin in the county. Despite losing Tulsa County by 15%, Harris won 41.3% of the vote in the county, the highest since 1964.

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

References