The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina. It was held concurrently with the 2024 presidential election and other elections. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein defeated Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson. He succeeded Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, who was term-limited.
Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024. Stein won the Democratic nomination with 70% of the vote over former state Supreme Court justice Michael R. Morgan and Robinson won the Republican nomination with 65% of the vote over state treasurer Dale Folwell.
Initially a tight race, Robinson's history of controversial statements and revelations of comments he made on a pornographic website led to Stein gaining a significant polling advantage. Stein went on to win the election by 14.8 percentage points, the largest margin for a gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina since Jim Hunt in 1980, as well as winning counties that had not voted Democratic since 2008 (Franklin and Jackson), 2004 (Alamance, Brunswick, and Transylvania), and 1980 (Cabarrus and Henderson). Stein was also the only Democrat in 2024 to win a gubernatorial race in a state Donald Trump won in the concurrent presidential race. Robinson became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate since 1976 to not flip a county in the state.
Stein received more than three million votes, the most of any candidate in the history of statewide elections in North Carolina. He is the first Jewish governor of the state. Analysts have credited Stein's large margin of victory with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections. According to exit polls, Stein won independent voters by 23 percentage points, which contributed to Robinson's defeat.
A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. Democrats and Republicans both hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points, the smallest margin among the states he won.
Incumbent Roy Cooper was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.
The Democratic nominee was Josh Stein, the incumbent state attorney general. The Republican nominee was Mark Robinson, the incumbent lieutenant governor.
The 2024 election was initially expected to be competitive due to the state's nearly even to slightly right-leaning partisan lean, the concurrent presidential election, and the seat being open due to term limits. However, Robinson later became embroiled in numerous controversies after becoming the nominee, allowing Stein to open up a large and consistent lead in polls. Stein won 37 counties and Robinson won 63. Of the three gubernatorial races that went blue in 2024, North Carolina went bluest in its overall margin, even though the other two were significantly more Democratic states.
Stein and Robinson faced each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson had also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office, including engaging in Holocaust denial. Robinson also received criticism from some Republicans considered to be moderate, including Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson. On September 17, Stein refused any potential debates with Robinson following a challenge from him.
On September 19, CNN released a story detailing racist, antisemitic, misogynistic, and other "disturbing comments" made by an account suspected to be Robinson on a pornography website between 2008 and 2012. Hours later, CNN specified multiple comments made on pornography website message boards, including Robinson calling himself a "black NAZI" and expressing support for reinstating slavery. The Carolina Journal had reported that earlier in the week the TrumpâÂÂVance campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Donald Trump or JD Vance. This occurred on the same day as the filing deadline for North Carolina's 2024 election ballots. Before the story was released, Robinson released a video dismissing the report as "tabloid lies" and saying that he would not drop out of the race. His campaign canceled events in Henderson and Norlina planned for the same day. Republican state senate nominee Scott Lassiter was the first on the ballot with Robinson to call for him to "step aside". Republican North Carolina senator Ted Budd said, "the allegations are concerning but we don't have any facts". That afternoon, Politico reported that an email address belonging to Robinson was registered on Ashley Madison, a website designed for people seeking affairs while married. The deadline for Robinson to withdraw from the race or be removed from the ballot passed on the morning of September 20.
Following CNN's September report, most forecasters moved the race to 'Likely Democratic', while Elections Daily moved the race to Safe Democratic.
Aggregate polls<br />
Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell<br />
Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham<br />
Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker<br />
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican<br />
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Stein won 12 of 14 congressional districts, including eight that elected Republican representatives, and nine that voted for Donald Trump.
Partisan clients<br />
Official campaign websites