The 2018 election for California's 21st congressional district was held on November 6, 2018, during the 2018 elections to the U.S. House of Representatives to determine who would represent California's 21st congressional district. The district, centered in the San Joaquin Valley, represents parts of Fresno County, Kern County, Kings County and Tulare County. It was represented by the incumbent, Republican David Valadao, since 2013.
Democrat TJ Cox, after dropping out of a competitive primary for the seat in California's 10th congressional district, chose to run against Valadao. Despite the district leaning Democratic and national polling suggesting a Democratic wave election, many election analysts considered Valadao likely to win. On election night, Valadao held an 8-point lead, the AP and other news networks called the race for Valadao, and Cox conceded. However, mail-in and absentee ballots, which constituted about 60% of all ballots cast in the race, started arriving in the days and weeks following election day and swung heavily toward Cox. On November 26, Cox took the lead, retaining it until all ballots had been counted; Valadao conceded the race on December 6.
California's 21st congressional district is located in Central California; it is a primarily agricultural district, and almost three quarters of its population is Hispanic. Politically, it leans five points more Democratic than the rest of the nation according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, and 44% of voters are registered Democrats, compared to only 27% registered Republicans.
Despite its preference for Democrats, Republican David Valadao won each of his three previous elections by double digits. In 2016, while Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won the district by sixteen percentage points, Valadao won reelection by thirteen. Valadao's support was attributed to his moderate viewpoints; support for and focus on local issues, such as water policy for the routinely drought-plagued district; and early opposition to Donald Trump.
Valadao, the incumbent, declared his candidacy for the election on February 23, 2017. As a Republican-held district Clinton won in 2016, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included this district in its initial list of 2018 targets.
Emilio Huerta, Valadao's challenger in 2016, originally intended to challenge Valadao again in the 2018 election. However, dealing with poor fundraising figures since his filing, Huerta dropped out of the race a week before the filing deadline, leaving Democrats without a challenger in the district. TJ Cox, a businessman from Fresno county originally running in the 2018 election for the 10th district, elected to drop out of that crowded primary in favor of the 21st district after Huerta dropped out.
The candidates were the only two to file by the deadline. The primary, held on June 5, 2018, resulted in Valadao and Cox advancing to the general with 63% and 37% of the vote respectively; no write-in candidates received votes.
Following the primary, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report rated the district "Likely Republican". This aligned with similar ratings issued by Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Aside from Sabato's Crystal Ball, which moved CA21 to Lean R, these ratings stayed the same through election day. FiveThirtyEight's rolling election forecast featured a "Lite" model which initially favored Cox based solely on national and local polls, including generic ballot national polls which showed Democrats significantly outperforming Republicans; however, its "Classic" and "Deluxe" forecasts, which took into account non-poll factors like candidate favorability, fundraising, and past performance, gave Valadao an edge. Furthermore, following the only poll in the district showing a lead for Valadao, the "Lite" model moved in his favor.
While most competitive Democrats were significantly outraising and outspending Republicans in the 2018 cycle, Valadao saw slightly greater fundraising totals than Cox in their election. The only poll in the district, conducted September 20âÂÂ24 by SurveyUSA, showed Valadao with an 11-point lead in the race, and president Trump with a 48% approval rating in the district, with 43% disapproving.