A regional election was held in the Community of Madrid on 24 May 2015 to elect the 10th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 129 seats in the Assembly were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
The ruling People's Party (PP) emerged once again as the largest political force in the region, but it saw a substantial drop in its vote support and the loss of the absolute majority it had held almost uninterruptedly since 1995âÂÂwith a brief interlude in 2003âÂÂ. However, as both the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and newcomer Podemos fell one seat short of an absolute majority, it meant that the PP could remain in government through an agreement with liberal Citizens (C's). As a result, Cristina Cifuentes became the new President of the Community of Madrid, forming a minority government with C's providing confidence and supply. Cifuentes would be the third regional President in three years, after Esperanza Aguirre's resignation in 2012 and incumbent president Ignacio González not running for the office as a result of several scandals.
The strong performance of both Podemos and C's was at the expense of left-wing United Left (IU)âÂÂwhich lost its parliamentary representation for the first time in history as a result of not reaching the required 5% thresholdâÂÂand Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), whose parliamentary presence was ephemeral having only entered the regional parliament in 2011.
After the 2011 regional election, the People's Party (PP) was re-elected to a fourth consecutive term in office with an absolute majority of seats, with the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) under Tomás Gómez obtaining the worst result of its history in the region up until that point. On 17 September 2012, President Esperanza Aguirre, who had renewed the office for a third term, resigned allegedly a result of health issues but also for "personal reasons", being succeeded in the presidency by her deputy, Ignacio González.
Opinion polls from 2012 predicted a drop in vote support for the PP, to the point that it could lose the absolute majority it had enjoyed almost uninterruptedly since 1995. The same polls had shown that the PSOE remained unable to capitalize on the PP government's electoral wear. On the 2014 European Parliament election, both parties obtained historic lows in the region: with 29.9%, the PP result was its lowest since 1989, while the PSOE's result at 18.9% was the party's lowest score ever. A newly created party, Podemos, was able to poll at 11.3%, placing itself as the third political force of the community and within striking distance of the PSOE. Podemos's growth in opinion polls since mid-to-late 2014 at the expense of the PSOE's vote inspired fears within the party that it could be displaced to third place both regionally and nationally.
Under the 1983 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Madrid was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.
Voting for the Assembly was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final court ruling, nor being legally incapacitated. Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting ().
The Assembly of Madrid had one seat per 50,000 inhabitants or fraction above 25,000. All were elected in a single multi-member constituencyâÂÂcorresponding to the autonomous community's territoryâÂÂusing the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally. As a result of the aforementioned allocation, the Assembly was entitled to 129 seats, based on the official population figures resulting from the latest revision of the municipal register (as of 1 January 2014).
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.
The term of the Assembly of Madrid expired four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the fifty-fifth day prior to the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM). The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 24 May 2015.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election had been called and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or during the last year of parliament before its planned expiration, nor before one year after a previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called, which was to be held on the first Sunday following the fifty-fourth day after the call. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances did not alter the date of the chamber's next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.
The election to the Assembly of Madrid was officially called on 31 March 2015 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOCM, setting election day for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 9 June.
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
On 11 February 2015, PSOE secretary-general Pedro Sánchez removed Tomás Gómez, PSOE candidate for the 2015 regional election, from the party's regional leadership. The decision came, allegedly, after suspicions of Gómez being involved in a tram project corruption scandal during his time as Mayor of Parla, though electoral motives may have helped hasten the move, as Gómez was deemed a bad candidate as Rafael Simancas later recognized. ÃÂngel Gabilondo, former Education minister in José Luis RodrÃÂguez Zapatero's cabinet from 2009 to 2011, was selected as PSOE's leading candidate in the region replacing Gómez on 21 February 2015.
In United Left (IU), Tania Sánchez, elected as party's candidate in a primary election held on 1 December 2014, had left the party on 4 February 2015 alongside a number of supporters over an internal conflict with the party's regional leadership, involved in the Caja Madrid "black" credit cards scandal. Luis GarcÃÂa Montero, a Spanish poet and literary critic, was selected to replace Sánchez' as IU candidate to the Community of Madrid.
The PP had not yet proclaimed a candidate as of February 2015, despite incumbent President Ignacio González being widely presumed to stand for a second term in office. On 2 March 2015, Spanish newspaper El Mundo pointed out that González had asked National Police officers to withhold information over an ongoing investigation on him about a possible tax fraud in the purchase of a luxury penthouse. González announced that he was the victim of policial "blackmail" and reiterated his wish to be his party's candidate for the 2015 election. However, rumours arose in the media that the party's leadership had withdrawn their support from González and expected him to eventually give up on his intention to run. Finally, on 6 March 2015, incumbent Government delegate in Madrid Cristina Cifuentes was chosen as PP candidate for the autonomous community, while former regional president Esperanza Aguirre was nominated as candidate to the City Council of Madrid.
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 65 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid.
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.
The following table lists the elected legislators sorted by order of election:
The PSOE announced that it would table a motion of no confidence on Cifuentes' government, after it was revealed that Cifuentes could have obtained a master's degree through fraudulent means and that documents were falsified in order to cover up the scandal. After Cifuentes's resignation as a result of the ensuing scandals, the motion of censure was cancelled and ÃÂngel Garrido was elected as new president.
Opinion poll sources
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