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2012 United States Senate election in Texas

The 2012 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2012, along with other elections to the United States Senate the United States House of Representatives in additional states. Incumbent Republican U.S. senator Kay Bailey Hutchison decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a fourth full term. This was the first open election for this seat since 1957.

Libertarian John Jay Myers was elected by nomination at the Texas Libertarian Party State Convention on June 8, 2012. After the first round of primary voting on May 29, 2012, a runoff was held on July 31, 2012, for both the Democratic Party and Republican Party. Former state representative Paul Sadler and former state solicitor general Ted Cruz respectively won the Democratic and Republican runoffs; Cruz won the general election by a wide margin.

Background

In an interview with Texas Monthly published in December 2007, incumbent U.S. senator Kay Bailey Hutchison stated that she would not seek reelection and might also resign from the Senate as early as 2009 to run for Governor of Texas. After the 2008 elections, Hutchison formed an exploratory committee to run for the governorship in 2010. State Republican Party Chairman Cathie Adams later called upon Hutchison to clarify when she would vacate the Senate so that other Republican candidates could make preparations to run.

On December 4, 2008, Hutchison set up an exploratory committee, setting up a primary battle with incumbent Republican governor Rick Perry. Fellow Texas U.S. senator and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn tried to convince Hutchison to stay in the Senate, for fear of losing the seat to the Democrats. On January 15, 2009, Hutchison transferred nearly all the money, approximately $8 million, from her federal campaign account to her gubernatorial exploratory committee. On November 13, 2009, Hutchison announced that she would not resign from the Senate seat until after the primary on March 2, 2010.

Hutchison lost the gubernatorial primary to Perry and on March 31, 2010, she announced her intention to serve out her third term. On January 13, 2011, after some discussion about whether she would change her mind, Hutchison announced she would not seek re-election in 2012.

Requirements for nomination

Texas requires a majority for nomination, as well as a second round runoff between the two candidates with the two highest pluralities if none win a majority on the first round. No candidate won a majority in either 2012 major party first round primary, so both parties had a runoff on July 31, 2012.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

  • Commissioned by David Dewhurst

With Dan Patrick

  • Commissioned by Dan Patrick

Results

Runoff

With no candidate reaching the 50% required to win the nomination outright in the May primary, Dewhurst and Cruz advanced to the July runoff election.

During the two-month period between the May primary and the July 31 runoff, the campaign transformed from a localized contest into a nationalized proxy war between the Republican establishment and the burgeoning Tea Party movement. Despite trailing Dewhurst by 11 points in the initial primary, Cruz utilized the runoff delay to consolidate the "anti-establishment" vote. He framed the race as a choice between a "moderate" career politician and a "true conservative."

National organizations flooded the state with resources, with groups like Club for Growth and FreedomWorks spending millions of dollars on Cruz's behalf, funding a massive ground game and television advertising blitz. Cruz held high-energy events featuring Tea Party politicians Sarah Palin and Rand Paul, which helped dominate the media narrative and cast him as the underdog hero of the grassroots.

Facing a collapsing lead, Dewhurst’s campaign and the Texas Conservatives Fund (a pro-Dewhurst Super PAC) launched ads attacking Cruz's legal career. They specifically targeted his work for a Chinese company in a patent lawsuit, attempting to paint him as "un-Texan." Cruz responded by highlighting Dewhurst's record as Lieutenant Governor, accusing him of allowing state spending to grow and being "timid" on conservative priorities.

While Dewhurst led Cruz by a 25 percentage point margin in hypothetical 1-on-1 polls taken just before the May election, Cruz had jumped out to a sizeable lead by the month of July.

Debates

The runoff featured several televised debates where the candidates clashed directly. Cruz, a champion collegiate debater, was widely perceived to have performed well, using the platforms to challenge Dewhurst's conservative credentials. Dewhurst often found himself on the defensive, struggling to distance himself from the "establishment" label in a year when Republican primary voters were seeking radical change.

Polling

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Filed

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Results

Runoff

Libertarian Party nomination

The Libertarian Party was qualified for the ballot (based on its 2010 performance at the polls). The Texas Libertarian Party nominated John Jay Myers as its Senate candidate, using approval voting on June 9 at the state convention in Fort Worth. The nominating process followed a two-round debate featuring six candidates for the nomination.

Candidates

  • Robert Butler
  • Wayne Huffman
  • Scott Jameson
  • John Jay Myers, restaurant owner
  • S. Ropal Raju
  • Jon Roland

Results

Green Party nomination

The Green Party of Texas reported two candidates pre-selected at the June 9 convention: David B. Collins and Victoria Ann Zabaras. Collins was ultimately nominated (official blog).

General election

Candidates

  • Ted Cruz, (Republican) former state solicitor general
  • Paul Sadler, (Democratic) former state representative
  • John Jay Myers, (Libertarian) restaurant owner
  • David Collins (Green), IT service desk analyst
  • Chris Tina Bruce (independent)
  • Mike Champion (independent)

Debates

Fundraising

Top contributors

Top industries

Predictions

Polling

with David Dewhurst

with Julian Castro

with Chet Edwards

with Sean Hubbard

with Tommy Lee Jones

with Paul Sadler

with Ricardo Sanchez

with John Sharp

with Bill White

Republican primary (when asked specifically, if Dewhurst were not running)

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Cruz won 25 of 36 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.

See also

Notes

References

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)