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2010 Catalan regional election

A regional election was held in Catalonia on 28 November 2010 to elect the 9th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election. This was the first election held in Catalonia after the Constitutional Court of Spain struck down parts of the regional 2006 Statute of Autonomy that granted new powers of self-rule to the region. The ruling came after four years of deliberation concerning a constitutional appeal filed by the conservative People's Party (PP) under Mariano Rajoy and was met with anger and street protests throughout the region.

The election resulted in a resounding victory for the Convergence and Union (CiU) federation under Artur Mas, whose 62 seats—six short of an absolute majority—virtually ensured that no alternative government was mathematically possible, as the left-wing alliance which had formed the government of Catalonia for the previous seven years fell to a bare 48 seats. The ' () coalition formed by the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV) was already at the brink of split going into the election, with political disagreements between the former allies having led Catalan president José Montilla to announce that he would not seek a third alliance with ERC and ICV even if election numbers favored such a possibility. The election saw a collapse in support for all three parties and Montilla's retirement from the PSC leadership shortly afterwards.

The PP had one of its best showings in a Catalan regional election, with 12.4% of the vote and 18 seats. Albert Rivera's Citizens (C's) party saw a slight increase in its vote share, whereas the pro-Catalan independence Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI) led by former FC Barcelona president Joan Laporta secured 4 seats in the Parliament.

Overview

Under the 2006 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Catalonia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president. In the absence of a regional electoral law, the election procedure came regulated under transitory provisions supplemented by the national law.

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final court ruling, nor being legally incapacitated.

The Parliament of Catalonia had a minimum of 100 and a maximum of 150 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 135. All were elected in four multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, each of which was assigned a fixed number of seats—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency. The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 1 November 2006, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 1 November 2010. The election decree was required to be published in the DOGC no later than 8 October 2010, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on 1 December 2010.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 5 October 2010 with the publication of the dissolution decree in the DOGC, setting election day for 28 November.

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Amendments to the electoral law in 2007 introduced requirements for a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

All candidates
Mas vs. Montilla

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Voter turnout

The table below shows registered voter turnout on election day, without including non-resident citizens.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Government formation

Notes

References

Opinion poll sources

Other

Bibliography