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1995 Valencian regional election

A regional election was held in the Valencian Community on 28 May 1995 to elect the 4th of the autonomous community. All 89 seats in the were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

As a result of the election, the People's Party (PP) increased its vote share by 15 percentage points relative to the 1991 election. For the first time, the PP had won a regional election, becoming the first party to poll more than 1 million votes in the area and gaining eleven seats, 3 short of an absolute majority. Most of the gains came from Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which lost 13 seats in the election. The regionalist Valencian Union (UV) also lost 1 seat, while United Left (IU) gained 4 seats to overtake UV as the third largest party.

A coalition agreement between the PP and UV was able to force the PSOE out from the Valencian Government after 12 years of Socialist rule. Eduardo Zaplana, the PP candidate, became the second democratically elected president of the autonomous community.

Background

After 12 years of consecutive Socialist governments both in the Spanish national government and in the Valencian Community, the People's Party (PP) had managed to greatly increase its support from 1992–93, mostly at the cost of what remained of the Democratic and Social Centre (CDS). In the 1993 general election, the PP had already increased its vote share from 27.0% in 1989 to 40.5% and had overtaken the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) in the region for the first time. The party had also seen a dramatical rise in the 1994 European Parliament election, rising to 44.2% from 22.8% in 1989.

United Left (IU) had gained ground at the expense of the PSOE and in both the 1993 general and 1994 EP elections had polled more than 10% for the first time since the 1970s. After peaking in the 1991 regional and local elections, the right-wing regional party Valencian Union (UV) had begun to lose ground in the 1993 and 1994 elections.

Population's weariness of PSOE's prolonged stay in power, economic crisis as well as the eruption of numerous corruption scandals at the national level had weakened the PSOE in the region to the point it was facing the possibility of a severe defeat for the first time in a decade. Joan Lerma's management of a wildfire crisis in the summer of 1994 came under heavy criticism, after the fire had resulted in the burning of 16% of the region's forest area.

Overview

Under the 1982 Statute of Autonomy, the were the unicameral legislature of the Valencian Community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.

Electoral system

Voting for the was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Valencian Community and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final court ruling, nor being legally incapacitated.

The had a minimum of 75 and a maximum of 100 seats, with the electoral law fixing its size at 89. All were elected in three multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 29 distributed in proportion to population (with the seat-to-population ratio in any given province not exceeding three times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each constituency was entitled the following seats:

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the expired four years after the date of their previous election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the fifty-fifth day prior to the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV). The previous election was held on 26 May 1991, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 28 May 1995.

The could not be dissolved before the expiration date of parliament.

The were officially dissolved on 4 April 1995 with the publication of the dissolution decree in the DOGV, setting election day for 28 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 20 June.

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 45 seats were required for an absolute majority in the .

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Valencian Government.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Government formation

Notes

References

Opinion poll sources

Other

Bibliography